SMU Election Project - MS

McCain Wins Mississippi!

2008-11-11T13:42:00.000-08:00

McCain wins Mississippi with an astounding lead of 56.4% to 42.8%. Considering the history of how Mississippi has voted for presidents in the past, and the trends that we saw throughout the election, it was clear that McCain was going to triumph over Obama in this red state.

The Exit polls did not prove much hope for Obama either. Although a high black turnout was expected for Obama because of his get out the vote efforts, exit polls suggested that only 33% of black voters turned out, and of those 98% of them voted for Obama. Although Obama received 98% of the black vote, the white voters not only had a bigger turnout in this state (62%), but the majority of the white vote (88% of that 62%) voted for McCain. Therefore, the one thing that Obama had going for him in this state, which was the black vote, may not have proved to be enough support for him to steal the state from McCain.

Also, seeing as the Economy was the top issue for the people of Mississippi throughout the election, the exit polls supported that by showing that 60% of voters believe that the economy was the top issue for the election. Of those, 56% of voters believed that McCain could handle it best where as only 44% said that Obama could.

Lastly, of the people who voted by party ID, 40% were democrats, 45% were republicans, and 15% were independents. The democrats clearly favored Obama 89% to 11%, whereas the republicans clearly favored McCain 94% to 6%, but what was interesting about these exit polls were the persuadable voters or the "independents." In most other states, Obama won the independent vote by margins, but in Mississippi the exit polls suggest that McCain took the independent vote 63% to 35%. This is remarkable, considering how influential Obama has been in other states with the persuadable voters. Maybe if Obama would have focused more of his efforts on getting the independent vote, he could have had a better shot at Mississippi.

(To see Exit Poll Stats Click Here)

Throughout the entire race Mississippi did not seem to budge one time for Senator Obama, even after Senator Obama won the debate at The University of Mississippi, these voters stayed true to the candidate that they believed had the expierence to handle the economy and national security the best- that candidate was John McCain.

1 day to go- John McCain has strong lead in MS

2008-11-03T12:42:00.000-08:00

With one day till Mississippi casts there 6 electoral votes for the next president of the United States, it is evident that the state will be giving these votes to John McCain. According to pollster.com McCain leads Obama by 50% to 41%. Although Obama has been trying to focus his efforts on his "get out the vote campaign" this has not seemed to effect the strong lead McCain has over Obama in the state. A reason for this could be that Mississippi, unlike many other states, does not allow for early voting unless it is in the form of an absentee ballot. Because of this, Obama supporters in Mississippi have only one day to get out and vote. Historically, early voting has been a good thing for democrats, and with early voting not being an option available to Mississippians the support on election day of democrats casting their vote may prove to be very weak.

10 days- Strong McCain

2008-10-22T09:14:00.000-07:00

With 50 days away from the election, McCain was winning Mississippi by 52.9% to 42.9%. Although the numbers have changed to McCain ahead by 50.3% to 40.8%, McCain still maintains his strong 10 point lead in the magnolia state. (For statistics click here)

In the two big senate races, only one can be considered a tight race. The first race between Cochran (R) and Fleming (D), can be called a landslide for Cochran who has increased his lead over Fleming by 58.5% to 33.5%. On the other hand, the race between Wicker (R) and Musgrove (D) is actually tightening with Wickers former 7 point lead closing to merley a 2 point lead. Wicker only leads Musgrove by 47.1% to 45.6%. This election will be an interesting one to watch, because if more democratics come out to vote for Musgrove, we could see a smaller gap between both Cochran and Fleming and McCain and Obama. Although this could be the case, the opposite is true also. Because of all the supporters for McCain and Cochran, Wicker may be able to ride on the coatails of these two races and pick up more votes to ensure a victory in the state. (For statistics click here)

50 days ago, the vice presidential candidates did not seem to matter as much as they do with 10 days left. Where as 64% of Mississippi voters have a favorable view of Palin, only 41% have a favorable view of Biden. Palin's favoribility rate is higher than Biden while her unfavorability rate is lower. Palin is unfavored by just 33% of the Mississippi voters, whereas Biden is unfavored by 52% of the voters. If this race depended on the VP pick, McCain would win by a landslide. (For statistics click here)

Because 83% of Mississippi voters think that the economy is getting worse, the economy remains the top issue for these voters, and contrary to the rest of the nation, they trust that McCain would handle it better by 54% to 43%. These voters believe it is more important to grow the economy than to close the gap between the rich and the poor, and it is because of this that McCain is viewed more favorably on the issue of economics than Obama. While 67% of voters believe that McCain shares the view that growing the economy should be a priority over closing the gap between the rich and the poor, only 25% of voters believe that this is Obamas top priority. (For statistics click here)

With these numbers, the history of the state that has been previously talked about, and McCains consistent lead in this state, it is only reasonable to assume that Mississppi is SOLID McCAIN!

Number of voters increase!

2008-10-21T20:05:00.000-07:00

http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/article/20081020/NEWS01/810200302/1002

Mississippi beats Florida!

2008-10-04T13:47:00.001-07:00

While Mississippians may have been excited to host the first presidential debate at Ole Miss, this excitement may have been outshadowed by the Ole Miss football team. Ole Miss pulled off a miracle and beat the no. 4 ranked Florida on Saturday, the day after the presidential election at Ole Miss. With the debate not having as much spirit and fire as hoped, and the football team having more spirit and fire than was hoped for, the victory for Ole Miss may have been in football rather than politics.

Who won the debate at the University of Mississippi?

2008-10-04T13:30:00.001-07:00

After watching the first presidential debate, it is safe to say that each candidate has a solid foot in the door to becoming the next President of the United States. Depending on who you ask, both Obama and McCain gave impressive arguments for both the main topics of National Security and the Economy.
While the polls suggests that Obama actually won the first presidential debate, these polls do not neccisarily mean victory for the candidate who came out on top. In the first presidential debate in 2004, Kerry won by the same numbers that Obama did, but later his support dropped 5 points. While there has not been a drop in Obama's support, it is clear that neither polling or debates are solid predictors of who is going to win the election.
Obama did an exceptional job as always, getting his point across to the average American. He made his plans easy to understand, and by doing this he may have appealed to more independent voters than he had originally. On the same note though, John McCain did a remarkable job in getting his attack message across that Obama is inexpierenced, and the safety of this country should not be in the hands of a man who will be doing "on the job training."
This debate has shown the true colors of both the candidates, and they did a remarkable job of reiterating the same messages that they have been campaigning with the entire election. If the candidates continue debating in this manner the voters will have to decide whether they are going to vote with a man who can relate issues to voters, or with a man who says he has the expierence to lead a country.
Either way, this debate did nothing more than re-state everything the candidates have already been saying. In the next two debates, both candidates, McCain especially, need to find new strategies to speak about the issues at hand or else they are both going to come off sounding repetitious and eventually the voters will stop listening to what they have to say.

African Americans doubt in Obama

2008-10-04T13:09:00.000-07:00

After reading this article, it may be safe to say that Obama is on the same level as McCain when it comes to the support of the black vote in Mississippi. Obama's campaign is focusing on getting out the black vote, so that he can tae victory in southern states like Mississippi, that have almost never been won by a Democratic Presidential candidate. While Obama may be right when he suggests that the support of the black vote may put him over the top in some states, Mississippi is not one of them. His efforts to many of the black voters in mississippi have proven to be the same as any other politician running for President, he is all talk and no action. Obama may have a hard time trying to convince the black mississippi voters that he is any different than the next politician, and with this obstacle, Obama's efforts to get out the black vote may proove to be a failire. If Obama does not do more to connect with the small town black voters in places such as Canton Mississippi, his over reliance on the black vote in Mississippi will lead him to a big dissapointment.

Presidential Debate in Mississippi- Ratings fall short

2008-10-04T12:51:00.000-07:00

The much anticipated presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama which took place at the University of Mississippi, was about 10 million viewers short of the first presidential debate in 2004 between Bush and Kerry. With McCain not making his decision of whether he would attend the debate until the morning of due to the economic crisis on Wall Street, and with the debate being on a friday night (one of the lowest tv- viewing nights of the week), it is understandable that this debate was not as widely viewed as previous presidential debates (see this website).

50 Days: Mississippi - Strong McCain

2008-09-15T09:02:00.000-07:00

With nearly 50 days till the election, Mississippi is STRONG McCAIN!In the 4 presidential cycles, Mississippi has voted Republican for each race:
Bush- 60% to Kerry- 40%
Bush- 58% to Gore - 41%
Dole- 49% to Clinton- 44%
Bush- 50% to Clinton- 41%
Currently pollster.com has McCain ahead of Obama with a solid 10 point lead, 52.9% to 42.9%.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ms/08-ms-pres-ge-mvo.php. Mississippi has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980; in fact, Jimmy Carter (1976) is the only Democratic presidential nominee to have carried the Magnolia State since Adlai Stevenson did in 1956.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election says that 69% of voters say it is most important to find new energy sources instead of trying to cut back. Another big Issue in mississippi is going to be the economy and healthcare. With the amount of poor whites and African Americans in MS, these two issues will be reasons to get them out to the polls. But as in Louisiana, a lot of the people in these demographics have no means of getting to the poll, and cannot afford to take time off from their job to go vote.

Besides the key issues, there are two senate races that are happening in MS that will take place on November 4th, Cochran (R) vs. Fleming (D) and Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D). The Cochran vs. Fleming race can be called for Cochran who is leading by more than 20 points in the polls, but the race to watch will bethe Wicker vs. Musgrove. Musgrove is trailing Wicker 42% to 49%, which shows that the state is leaning republican for this race. But will Musgrove be able to get more voters out on November 4th? Even if so, the republicans will be out in full force voting for McCain and Cochran that Wicker will also have a high voter turn out for November 4th. Most likely a much higher turnout than Musgrove.

Most people are not talking about the senate races in mississippi because they are more concerned with the ‘big race.’ Mississipians are looking most forward to the presidential debate coming to ole miss on september 26.

A Few Facts!!!

2008-09-14T19:29:00.001-07:00

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election

September 12- Judge orders election placeent to be moved!

2008-09-14T15:11:00.000-07:00

http://www.nationaljournal.com/congressdaily/hbp_20080912_5188.php?related=true&story1=null&story2=null&story3=null

Senate Race in MS!

2008-09-14T14:55:00.000-07:00

With two senate races going on in MS, there is only one that an be called a battle. In one race, the Republicans will take the cake, Cochran (R) 59% to Fleming (D) 32%, but in the other race it is not so safe : http://www.pollster.com/polls/ms/08-ms-sen-ge-wvm.php.
In this senate race it is a close call between Wicker's (R) 49.6% and Musgrove's (D) 42.4%. Will this race bring out more democrats, and black voters, to support Musgrove on Nov.4? Even if it does it most likely will not bring out enough democrats to affect John McCains heavy lead in MS of 53.3%.
Check out this article:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congressdaily/cdp_20080804_6647.php?related=true&story1=null&story2=null&story3=null

Mississippi for McCain!

2008-09-11T10:28:00.000-07:00